* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SHARY AL202010 10/29/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 59 55 46 37 24 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 59 55 46 37 24 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 58 59 59 54 43 34 29 26 25 26 DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 22 37 41 52 70 74 60 56 55 57 52 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 7 11 0 2 12 20 19 18 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 175 211 229 215 205 202 218 236 269 270 250 244 N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.2 18.4 15.9 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.6 15.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 111 110 107 83 78 71 68 65 67 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 100 103 105 102 80 75 69 65 62 63 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.0 -55.6 -55.8 -56.4 -56.4 -55.0 -54.1 -55.6 -57.2 -57.1 -58.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 41 37 38 33 35 40 47 55 55 60 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 15 14 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 57 48 47 24 -43 -37 -17 6 37 7 -57 N/A 200 MB DIV 72 66 31 54 74 50 38 36 0 37 26 14 N/A LAND (KM) 1108 1149 1157 1053 979 648 1066 1452 1060 859 822 761 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.7 33.1 35.1 37.0 41.7 46.9 50.4 51.9 52.2 50.8 49.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.8 64.4 63.0 60.0 56.9 48.9 38.7 31.0 25.8 22.9 22.0 20.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 19 25 32 35 42 38 24 13 7 9 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 996 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -13. -19. -23. -25. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -5. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 9. 5. -4. -13. -26. -35. -39. -43. -49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202010 SHARY 10/29/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202010 SHARY 10/29/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202010 SHARY 10/29/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)