* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/29/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 57 63 65 65 65 67 71 73 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 51 57 63 65 65 65 67 71 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 45 49 51 53 54 55 55 55 54 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 10 12 13 21 19 24 21 29 31 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 5 4 0 -2 -1 -3 -6 -8 -8 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 172 234 230 245 229 237 245 231 234 235 246 239 236 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 159 159 161 163 162 161 162 163 166 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 169 166 162 161 161 162 159 154 152 151 152 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 11 9 10 8 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 67 69 74 73 71 71 72 71 71 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 13 15 18 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 0 1 12 9 12 8 26 53 67 80 98 200 MB DIV 133 135 125 90 91 94 93 101 84 92 108 95 86 LAND (KM) 406 322 212 191 251 366 352 303 218 122 117 26 43 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.0 14.0 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 58.1 59.4 60.5 61.6 63.7 66.1 68.3 70.2 71.5 72.4 73.0 73.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 8 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 83 87 89 106 114 107 90 94 99 100 106 104 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 28. 30. 30. 30. 32. 36. 38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/29/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 49% is 10.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/29/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/29/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)