* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SHARY AL202010 10/30/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 65 65 62 53 43 34 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 65 65 62 53 43 34 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 70 69 66 55 43 35 31 31 32 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 37 45 54 63 73 75 59 56 45 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 9 8 4 0 -1 8 8 8 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 228 216 206 204 209 224 245 272 266 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.2 23.7 19.9 15.9 14.7 14.6 14.9 15.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 110 107 104 86 75 71 69 69 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 104 104 102 99 82 71 68 65 65 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.6 -56.0 -56.4 -56.7 -56.2 -55.2 -55.8 -58.0 -58.2 -59.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 38 33 32 39 36 40 51 56 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 38 26 14 -27 -53 -22 -31 -33 -31 -57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 37 56 59 52 48 27 0 8 22 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1174 1212 1112 1043 900 787 1185 1555 1186 968 705 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 33.0 34.6 36.6 38.6 43.3 46.6 48.7 49.9 49.9 49.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.3 62.0 59.6 56.2 52.8 44.3 37.2 31.6 26.9 23.7 19.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 26 30 34 37 35 26 19 13 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 847 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -29. -30. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 21. 26. 30. 30. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 2. -7. -17. -26. -35. -43. -47. -53. -59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202010 SHARY 10/30/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202010 SHARY 10/30/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202010 SHARY 10/30/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)