* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/30/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 67 72 75 77 77 77 79 80 81 85 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 67 72 75 77 77 77 79 80 81 85 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 65 69 72 74 74 74 75 78 81 83 84 SHEAR (KT) 7 12 14 9 12 18 16 17 15 17 15 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 5 7 5 2 2 -2 -6 -6 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 187 204 235 244 223 234 210 234 214 223 211 220 172 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 159 159 161 162 160 160 161 160 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 165 164 160 160 160 160 157 155 155 151 150 148 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 9 10 8 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 66 66 63 67 69 70 69 71 70 70 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 17 20 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -10 -6 8 15 8 10 22 42 70 87 96 94 200 MB DIV 127 117 79 76 69 62 71 71 106 136 83 92 22 LAND (KM) 362 267 228 252 300 374 366 343 281 290 270 226 150 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.0 60.2 61.3 62.4 64.7 66.8 68.9 71.0 72.7 74.2 75.2 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 85 89 98 93 95 108 84 87 96 111 116 96 100 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. 29. 30. 31. 35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 37% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)