* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SHARY AL202010 10/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 59 55 44 35 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 59 55 44 35 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 64 62 58 48 39 32 29 29 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 37 33 42 46 53 65 69 63 47 38 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 6 5 5 6 0 -2 -5 3 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 222 210 205 205 207 225 255 278 263 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.8 21.4 19.5 16.7 16.2 15.9 15.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 106 104 91 83 75 73 72 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 102 100 86 77 71 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.5 -57.0 -57.6 -57.8 -57.4 -56.8 -58.1 -59.2 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 37 32 31 35 38 35 40 45 42 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 10 11 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 19 0 -40 -82 -96 -138 -156 -84 -44 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 54 59 60 56 54 32 -9 38 22 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1244 1193 1134 965 897 1105 1458 1473 1141 814 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.6 36.3 38.2 40.1 43.1 45.2 46.8 47.8 48.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.9 57.8 54.6 50.7 46.7 40.0 34.1 29.0 24.8 20.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 31 34 36 33 26 21 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 25 CX,CY: 22/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -16. -22. -26. -30. -30. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -22. -26. -25. -28. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 26. 31. 34. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -21. -30. -39. -45. -49. -54. -60. -66. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202010 SHARY 10/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202010 SHARY 10/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202010 SHARY 10/30/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)