* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 72 76 80 80 78 77 77 79 79 81 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 72 76 80 80 78 77 77 79 79 81 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 68 72 75 76 76 75 75 77 81 84 86 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 13 15 12 16 12 15 10 11 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 8 6 5 9 7 4 0 -1 1 4 8 SHEAR DIR 210 230 235 206 223 229 219 233 206 197 210 265 168 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 160 159 161 162 162 160 159 161 160 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 162 162 161 161 160 159 156 153 152 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 11 10 9 10 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 64 65 68 71 73 75 71 74 73 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 14 13 14 15 16 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -6 11 17 15 25 26 35 54 72 82 95 94 200 MB DIV 119 78 74 81 89 94 54 46 86 96 82 62 21 LAND (KM) 296 253 279 322 355 411 343 300 281 306 285 237 188 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 60.1 61.3 62.6 63.8 65.9 68.0 69.9 71.8 73.2 74.4 75.4 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 85 96 101 95 105 88 88 90 102 114 109 87 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 25. 23. 22. 22. 24. 24. 26. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 37% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 4( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)