* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SHARY AL202010 10/30/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 60 55 50 40 32 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 60 55 50 40 32 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 63 60 55 45 36 31 29 29 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 39 47 49 50 61 73 69 47 35 32 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 7 1 -8 -5 -1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 211 210 206 206 218 243 264 262 263 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.2 24.0 22.3 22.2 19.1 17.2 16.7 16.3 16.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 105 104 94 93 81 75 73 71 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 99 97 88 86 75 70 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -57.0 -57.2 -57.7 -58.0 -57.3 -57.9 -59.2 -58.9 -59.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 32 30 34 39 39 41 46 44 53 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 0 -50 -91 -99 -141 -171 -122 -74 -83 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 71 69 79 65 38 -3 30 22 34 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1172 1139 1008 953 991 1255 1551 1527 1252 1001 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.5 37.8 39.2 40.6 42.9 44.7 45.9 46.7 47.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 54.0 50.7 47.4 44.1 38.1 33.1 29.0 25.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 29 29 29 27 23 18 14 12 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 35 CX,CY: 29/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -24. -28. -32. -32. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -26. -28. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 27. 32. 35. 36. 39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -10. -15. -25. -33. -41. -46. -49. -55. -63. -68. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202010 SHARY 10/30/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202010 SHARY 10/30/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202010 SHARY 10/30/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)