* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/30/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 77 80 81 80 78 77 72 70 72 75 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 77 80 81 80 78 77 72 70 72 75 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 76 78 79 79 76 73 73 74 73 71 69 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 15 21 17 20 15 14 13 21 22 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 6 3 6 5 6 2 0 0 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 198 210 205 229 259 244 248 225 223 237 239 225 170 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 161 161 162 160 159 160 160 161 160 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 161 160 160 159 160 155 152 150 149 147 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 64 68 67 68 69 69 73 76 74 74 71 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 15 14 17 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -10 9 10 6 8 19 19 39 64 77 81 94 89 200 MB DIV 107 100 94 83 75 60 54 52 86 76 67 36 34 LAND (KM) 273 296 344 372 409 345 325 252 244 267 200 185 186 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.1 61.3 62.5 63.7 64.8 67.0 69.1 70.8 72.1 73.0 73.9 74.3 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 7 5 5 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 96 107 98 107 95 88 88 96 115 119 110 107 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 15. 13. 12. 7. 5. 7. 10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 100.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 7( 13) 8( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)