* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/30/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 74 76 75 75 72 69 68 67 69 75 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 74 76 75 75 72 69 68 67 69 75 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 72 73 71 67 65 65 67 70 74 76 SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 19 14 19 11 12 14 10 9 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 8 5 4 10 8 8 1 -1 1 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 206 208 232 241 233 243 235 225 223 203 192 214 244 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 161 163 162 159 159 160 159 160 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 159 158 161 163 159 153 152 150 146 146 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 65 67 68 69 69 72 69 71 66 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 16 16 16 14 16 15 15 16 16 17 21 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 11 14 22 13 31 49 67 71 97 95 92 200 MB DIV 108 101 98 98 113 43 75 61 87 59 88 9 62 LAND (KM) 288 339 377 402 390 352 319 234 261 259 211 196 199 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.1 63.2 64.4 65.6 67.9 69.6 71.2 72.5 73.4 73.7 74.3 74.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 10 8 7 5 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 94 104 105 102 79 93 89 99 118 113 110 107 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 7. 4. 3. 2. 4. 10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/30/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 5( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)