* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/31/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 86 88 86 82 79 77 74 70 69 70 75 V (KT) LAND 80 84 86 88 86 82 79 77 74 70 69 70 75 V (KT) LGE mod 80 85 87 87 86 80 75 71 72 74 76 77 80 SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 11 20 18 18 14 15 20 6 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 6 14 10 5 -1 -1 -2 -3 1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 214 231 235 226 223 248 232 223 199 228 191 216 105 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 161 162 160 159 158 160 159 158 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 160 160 160 155 152 149 149 146 144 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 65 67 69 72 74 74 72 71 71 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 14 16 13 13 13 14 14 16 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 15 13 17 21 18 15 38 55 66 80 91 90 81 200 MB DIV 117 110 102 102 77 31 31 78 66 40 29 64 37 LAND (KM) 307 338 366 408 392 351 320 256 256 263 245 222 168 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 61.7 62.9 64.0 65.2 66.3 68.3 69.9 71.2 72.4 73.2 73.6 73.9 74.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 109 100 108 88 79 90 92 99 118 116 111 111 110 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -11. -9. -7. -6. -4. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -19. -18. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 6. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -10. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 10( 25) 8( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)