* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/31/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 89 88 85 78 72 71 66 66 67 72 76 V (KT) LAND 85 88 89 88 85 78 72 71 66 66 67 72 76 V (KT) LGE mod 85 89 90 88 86 78 71 68 69 73 78 83 88 SHEAR (KT) 17 20 18 22 20 22 23 14 15 8 6 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 11 7 10 13 1 -4 -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 227 231 238 236 241 239 239 215 218 197 214 71 107 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 161 162 162 160 159 159 158 159 158 160 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 159 161 159 154 151 150 148 147 143 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 64 66 68 71 70 72 73 73 75 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 15 13 13 12 11 13 11 16 18 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 14 9 5 22 45 60 77 78 85 83 73 200 MB DIV 110 93 94 82 63 38 42 93 76 75 45 118 65 LAND (KM) 344 377 413 374 334 345 315 277 304 303 244 222 215 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 63.4 64.4 65.5 66.6 68.5 70.0 71.4 72.6 73.4 73.7 73.9 74.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 100 106 102 80 83 91 93 100 123 115 111 111 108 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -14. -12. -8. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -4. -1. 0. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 0. -7. -13. -14. -19. -19. -18. -13. -9. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 94.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 10( 28) 6( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)