* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/31/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 83 80 74 71 69 66 67 71 77 82 V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 83 80 74 71 69 66 67 71 77 82 V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 85 83 80 74 69 68 70 75 81 89 96 SHEAR (KT) 19 18 23 25 21 22 17 15 11 10 3 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 8 8 6 8 -1 -5 -5 -4 -3 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 246 238 241 242 255 237 247 213 238 168 149 104 113 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 162 162 159 158 157 157 157 159 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 158 160 160 158 153 150 147 147 146 147 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 67 68 67 75 75 77 75 75 75 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 12 14 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 19 22 22 31 50 65 79 89 82 93 86 200 MB DIV 66 84 85 62 39 32 51 87 103 74 95 134 100 LAND (KM) 366 390 405 369 350 333 281 256 274 321 277 223 155 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.3 65.3 66.4 67.4 69.2 70.6 71.5 72.3 73.0 73.8 74.0 73.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 106 104 84 79 89 87 94 101 121 123 110 110 110 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -14. -18. -18. -14. -11. -8. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -5. -11. -14. -16. -19. -18. -14. -8. -3. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 7( 25) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)