* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 10/31/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 63 61 59 56 57 56 57 63 73 78 80 V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 61 59 56 57 56 57 63 73 78 80 V (KT) LGE mod 70 65 61 58 55 52 51 52 55 60 69 81 89 SHEAR (KT) 19 23 23 23 19 24 14 14 6 5 6 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 7 4 5 -5 -6 -3 -3 -4 -3 -8 3 SHEAR DIR 237 241 243 251 252 252 240 226 211 181 70 124 142 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 162 160 159 158 157 157 159 159 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 159 159 156 152 149 147 145 146 146 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 67 67 73 77 79 79 77 78 74 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 12 12 11 12 11 12 15 18 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 21 24 33 42 55 63 80 79 83 60 104 200 MB DIV 75 81 57 39 41 64 86 93 90 78 150 98 95 LAND (KM) 390 399 359 348 358 311 270 274 296 314 255 167 73 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 64.3 65.3 66.3 67.3 68.3 70.0 71.3 72.3 72.9 73.4 73.8 73.7 73.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 3 3 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 104 83 73 88 91 92 99 121 123 114 107 108 104 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -11. -8. -5. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -13. -14. -13. -7. 3. 8. 10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 10/31/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)