* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 42 38 34 32 33 37 40 49 59 70 72 V (KT) LAND 55 47 42 38 34 32 33 37 40 49 59 70 62 V (KT) LGE mod 55 46 41 37 35 31 30 30 33 37 44 53 60 SHEAR (KT) 24 25 27 23 25 22 14 12 9 3 10 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 5 1 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 246 253 255 248 243 260 235 247 184 156 125 120 148 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 160 159 159 158 156 158 159 161 165 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 159 158 154 153 151 148 143 144 146 150 156 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 7 8 6 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 70 70 70 72 75 77 76 77 76 80 72 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 11 12 15 17 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 24 33 39 43 67 70 77 73 72 85 107 200 MB DIV 54 32 17 40 41 64 76 93 92 125 152 114 95 LAND (KM) 400 376 352 309 290 250 266 301 328 281 211 84 -10 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.1 17.3 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 67.0 68.0 68.9 69.7 71.2 72.4 73.0 73.2 73.4 73.8 73.5 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 2 3 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 77 81 89 84 86 97 121 123 119 111 109 106 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -10. -7. -4. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -22. -18. -15. -6. 4. 15. 18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 83.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)