* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 32 29 26 27 32 39 44 56 67 77 77 V (KT) LAND 45 37 32 29 26 27 32 39 44 56 67 77 67 V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 32 29 27 25 25 27 29 34 41 51 51 SHEAR (KT) 20 25 21 24 25 11 12 8 5 6 7 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 2 0 -4 -4 -2 -4 0 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 240 250 248 249 252 257 205 206 198 87 127 127 157 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 160 160 160 159 158 159 158 160 165 168 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 156 156 155 155 153 148 147 146 149 157 163 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 74 77 78 80 81 81 80 78 71 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 14 17 20 22 23 18 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 35 45 44 70 77 85 85 94 77 105 115 200 MB DIV 26 25 39 59 64 100 121 128 114 165 138 150 42 LAND (KM) 324 296 261 245 242 224 287 356 352 276 150 22 100 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.7 18.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 68.0 68.9 69.8 70.6 72.4 73.5 74.2 74.5 74.5 74.2 73.1 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 7 4 3 3 5 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 81 86 83 85 92 120 107 98 95 97 108 0 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -10. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -8. -4. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -16. -19. -18. -13. -6. -1. 11. 22. 32. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)