* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 32 29 28 30 35 41 47 56 67 73 77 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 29 28 30 35 41 47 56 67 65 68 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 29 28 27 28 30 33 38 45 42 53 SHEAR (KT) 20 22 21 22 18 12 11 14 5 7 6 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 -1 -4 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 242 243 244 252 263 218 229 192 169 146 162 164 230 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 156 158 156 157 157 157 161 164 156 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 153 152 153 148 146 144 146 151 156 150 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -51.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 74 76 76 79 78 81 76 78 78 77 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 10 12 15 17 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 29 36 45 45 50 70 81 80 79 91 100 105 124 200 MB DIV 26 42 66 53 56 97 113 113 132 178 173 134 101 LAND (KM) 242 195 191 159 161 248 334 361 295 180 23 10 281 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.4 17.9 19.9 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 69.3 70.3 71.2 72.1 73.4 74.1 74.4 74.4 74.1 73.6 72.3 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 5 3 3 4 7 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 83 83 90 96 114 108 98 96 97 107 98 0 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -12. -10. -5. 1. 7. 16. 27. 33. 37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)