* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/01/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 38 39 44 53 61 68 78 84 89 87 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 38 39 44 53 61 68 78 84 81 80 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 37 38 39 42 47 53 61 73 76 81 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 14 10 9 4 14 5 7 9 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 -2 -2 -3 1 0 -4 0 -4 -2 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 242 244 242 270 247 208 214 189 124 110 117 128 169 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 157 157 156 157 157 160 161 162 154 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 153 152 150 147 146 145 149 152 155 147 135 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 72 75 76 76 77 79 80 79 77 79 74 63 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 13 15 17 19 19 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 41 51 54 53 64 80 96 81 91 97 90 124 113 200 MB DIV 47 61 71 61 84 120 151 140 178 166 170 97 35 LAND (KM) 168 146 113 114 163 260 334 381 311 182 11 31 281 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.3 16.4 18.1 20.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 70.2 71.2 72.0 72.7 73.7 74.5 74.7 74.6 74.2 73.5 72.3 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 5 7 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 84 89 97 109 114 101 92 90 95 106 78 14 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 21. 28. 38. 44. 49. 47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/01/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)