* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 44 48 55 63 69 76 81 82 80 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 44 48 55 63 69 76 80 77 75 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 42 44 47 51 57 66 75 77 78 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 15 14 11 8 12 7 8 4 25 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 -2 -1 1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -11 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 243 239 260 275 233 232 198 232 156 153 143 169 188 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 158 157 157 157 158 158 160 162 160 151 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 154 152 150 147 145 146 151 156 152 139 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 74 77 80 79 78 79 83 69 56 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 14 15 17 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 53 61 68 82 79 75 84 83 111 127 98 200 MB DIV 55 61 64 80 97 116 137 112 161 154 163 120 50 LAND (KM) 161 127 148 209 281 348 368 336 271 104 31 100 204 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.7 17.1 19.2 20.7 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.4 72.3 73.1 73.8 74.7 75.3 75.3 74.9 74.1 73.1 71.8 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 2 3 6 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 90 98 114 115 101 89 78 81 97 109 87 68 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 23. 29. 36. 41. 42. 40. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 103.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)