* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/02/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 47 54 62 72 76 82 85 87 87 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 47 54 62 72 76 82 68 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 48 52 58 67 78 71 68 72 SHEAR (KT) 20 15 15 14 12 7 10 3 12 12 12 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -7 -2 -5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 248 270 270 243 222 219 198 116 144 134 159 175 206 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 157 158 157 159 159 161 164 158 151 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 151 150 150 147 147 148 151 156 149 140 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 78 80 82 82 80 81 78 66 55 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 9 11 13 14 16 15 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 53 62 66 82 75 81 75 76 104 99 82 200 MB DIV 59 58 79 86 102 127 138 162 153 157 155 93 55 LAND (KM) 129 136 193 254 311 355 346 272 192 39 -41 67 202 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.5 17.7 19.2 20.4 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.2 73.0 73.6 74.2 75.0 75.3 75.3 75.0 74.0 72.4 70.9 69.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 6 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 97 112 114 103 96 84 80 87 103 101 95 56 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 22. 32. 36. 42. 45. 47. 47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 104.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)