* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/02/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 60 68 78 87 92 93 96 96 90 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 60 68 78 87 92 93 63 70 64 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 52 55 58 64 70 79 89 99 69 81 79 SHEAR (KT) 12 7 10 11 8 9 5 7 8 15 4 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 2 2 2 -3 -5 -2 -3 -5 0 3 12 SHEAR DIR 279 288 252 244 240 187 185 148 106 135 150 172 206 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 158 158 159 159 160 161 162 155 147 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 151 151 149 148 147 149 153 155 146 133 125 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 5 6 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 72 74 78 80 82 81 79 80 84 73 61 55 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 11 14 16 17 16 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 52 63 76 74 81 80 78 87 82 114 100 99 97 200 MB DIV 75 90 98 105 115 131 141 163 163 145 92 51 48 LAND (KM) 113 178 253 294 317 374 303 244 176 32 -11 128 215 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.6 17.9 19.7 20.9 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.2 73.0 73.7 74.3 74.8 75.5 75.8 75.5 74.6 73.2 71.5 70.3 69.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 5 8 10 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 110 113 100 95 86 73 76 88 103 100 7 68 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 23. 33. 42. 47. 48. 51. 51. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 100.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)