* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/02/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 46 54 66 77 78 82 87 86 82 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 46 54 66 77 78 82 86 84 81 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 37 39 43 49 58 68 75 78 77 72 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 8 5 9 10 12 21 16 6 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 3 0 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 7 11 19 SHEAR DIR 314 256 243 235 235 200 113 129 139 151 154 175 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 160 159 161 163 163 162 152 144 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 153 152 153 151 147 151 154 155 154 141 130 122 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 80 80 78 75 80 72 60 53 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 9 11 13 16 18 18 21 23 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 69 79 79 79 78 80 74 57 105 126 114 105 119 200 MB DIV 105 96 97 112 119 119 150 138 150 120 58 55 63 LAND (KM) 244 270 307 350 394 333 256 155 85 58 76 222 350 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.4 16.4 17.7 19.1 20.5 21.8 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.2 74.9 75.5 76.1 76.6 77.1 77.0 76.4 75.4 74.0 72.2 71.0 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 5 3 4 7 9 10 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 86 78 70 74 78 95 104 97 91 84 57 54 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 926 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 31. 42. 43. 47. 52. 51. 47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 65% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 55% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 11.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/02/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)