* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/03/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 42 46 56 69 80 83 84 86 82 77 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 46 56 69 80 82 82 83 80 75 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 35 36 38 42 48 58 67 71 72 69 62 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 7 9 9 5 9 13 20 7 12 12 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -2 -1 -5 -4 0 5 11 19 19 SHEAR DIR 212 207 219 215 208 166 118 127 138 179 203 221 267 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 159 159 159 161 164 162 152 147 142 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 152 150 147 147 152 158 153 140 132 126 121 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 5 7 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 80 80 78 79 77 64 51 44 41 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 16 18 21 22 21 23 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 77 70 74 78 72 67 60 79 134 111 107 105 126 200 MB DIV 91 90 105 118 129 155 175 157 131 66 42 56 14 LAND (KM) 274 310 343 383 370 315 233 131 47 55 167 256 342 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.7 17.1 19.0 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 75.4 76.0 76.4 76.7 76.7 76.1 75.2 74.0 72.8 71.8 70.8 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 3 6 10 10 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 78 71 74 75 80 85 86 99 86 46 40 49 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 8. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 34. 45. 48. 49. 51. 47. 42. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)