* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/03/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 41 51 64 73 78 82 83 80 76 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 41 51 64 73 75 75 76 74 69 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 51 57 61 64 65 63 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 10 8 4 9 14 8 7 12 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 -5 -3 -4 -5 -2 0 3 4 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 181 216 217 214 212 129 139 158 137 191 225 251 254 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 159 159 160 161 164 158 149 142 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 149 148 148 151 155 156 149 137 127 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 8 6 6 6 6 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 79 79 78 81 77 61 57 51 55 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 16 14 16 17 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 71 71 77 71 68 71 61 97 104 90 96 111 121 200 MB DIV 95 104 112 117 111 156 151 151 114 81 48 54 37 LAND (KM) 270 296 327 359 391 311 201 52 23 123 246 289 251 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.2 15.0 16.2 17.7 19.4 20.9 22.0 22.3 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.7 76.1 76.3 76.4 76.2 75.3 74.3 73.1 71.9 70.7 69.7 69.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 6 8 10 10 9 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 75 73 75 75 75 74 95 93 77 55 51 41 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 21. 34. 43. 48. 52. 53. 50. 46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)