* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/03/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 38 49 59 69 71 75 73 68 60 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 38 49 59 65 66 70 67 63 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 31 35 41 46 49 52 52 51 46 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 3 11 17 15 11 13 19 27 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -5 -3 -6 -4 -2 0 3 7 6 8 SHEAR DIR 205 220 215 234 254 152 164 173 211 216 230 255 270 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 160 161 164 158 150 144 143 140 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 148 148 149 154 157 147 136 127 125 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 79 78 77 77 65 56 49 47 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 16 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 73 73 64 69 88 122 94 93 94 109 84 200 MB DIV 102 102 114 131 149 181 170 141 73 82 42 21 25 LAND (KM) 333 368 377 338 300 182 30 11 111 200 233 264 331 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 16.2 18.0 19.6 20.9 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 76.0 76.2 76.3 76.4 75.8 74.5 73.4 72.5 71.7 71.0 70.0 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 4 5 8 10 9 7 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 71 71 72 74 78 96 91 71 51 18 52 47 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 16. 15. 13. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 19. 29. 39. 41. 45. 43. 38. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)