* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 57 68 73 75 70 63 54 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 57 65 63 65 60 53 44 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 43 47 49 52 51 47 42 34 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 8 8 11 10 12 13 28 47 61 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -7 -6 -3 -4 -2 2 5 10 3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 221 203 225 227 199 193 182 194 200 266 278 276 264 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 160 161 163 158 151 141 136 133 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 149 151 151 153 147 139 127 119 115 115 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 8 7 6 5 3 2 4 4 6 700-500 MB RH 81 79 75 78 76 79 73 59 46 46 41 39 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 14 15 13 14 11 14 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 67 67 72 73 105 85 52 52 82 115 127 200 MB DIV 121 111 134 138 160 153 165 131 98 43 -12 -11 24 LAND (KM) 365 325 285 234 175 8 0 111 278 397 458 502 577 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.7 18.0 19.3 20.8 22.3 23.3 23.8 24.0 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.9 75.0 74.9 74.8 74.0 72.8 71.7 70.8 70.0 69.4 68.4 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 7 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 79 82 87 93 94 94 54 59 42 36 38 41 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 0. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 1. 2. 0. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 14. 12. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 38. 43. 45. 40. 33. 24. 14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/03/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)