* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/04/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 62 71 78 81 79 71 60 45 33 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 62 71 78 81 79 71 60 45 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 53 57 64 71 74 72 65 56 44 33 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 11 10 10 14 13 14 18 36 57 66 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -1 0 -2 -3 0 -2 7 6 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 207 204 229 220 181 191 192 205 221 260 261 263 264 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 163 162 152 142 135 129 123 121 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 150 150 154 154 141 129 120 113 106 104 109 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 8 6 5 3 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 80 76 77 76 76 76 63 47 37 32 34 29 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 74 69 65 70 80 95 98 63 35 51 62 21 11 200 MB DIV 123 142 145 157 142 124 141 123 59 8 14 0 15 LAND (KM) 311 261 212 165 113 58 111 300 478 621 736 762 718 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.4 19.1 20.9 22.5 24.1 25.3 26.2 26.2 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.0 74.0 72.6 71.5 70.7 69.7 68.5 67.5 66.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 8 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 81 89 94 96 96 87 58 40 35 25 13 12 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -13. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 31. 38. 41. 39. 31. 20. 5. -7. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 91.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 62% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 9.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 8.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)