* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/04/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 51 55 63 67 68 63 54 43 31 17 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 51 55 63 67 68 63 54 43 31 17 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 50 56 60 59 54 47 39 31 23 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 12 11 15 21 25 29 50 58 68 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 0 -2 2 3 0 4 1 4 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 221 217 196 193 181 178 200 208 251 264 274 272 277 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 163 164 157 146 137 132 129 128 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 153 154 156 149 134 121 115 112 111 109 107 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 80 81 79 79 79 70 53 37 38 37 31 30 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 17 15 14 13 12 11 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 66 68 75 82 85 126 86 43 26 57 55 54 43 200 MB DIV 147 154 161 146 135 136 113 94 50 6 -6 -24 -9 LAND (KM) 245 191 139 89 77 33 223 400 511 576 598 632 669 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.4 18.1 20.0 21.9 23.4 24.4 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 75.9 75.8 75.5 75.2 73.9 72.4 71.4 70.8 69.8 68.4 67.4 66.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 10 12 10 7 5 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 88 94 93 93 87 73 40 35 33 30 33 29 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -7. -13. -21. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 23. 27. 28. 23. 14. 3. -9. -23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 91.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)