* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 47 51 59 65 67 60 55 51 43 25 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 47 51 59 65 67 60 55 51 43 25 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 51 54 55 51 45 35 25 18 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 12 9 6 7 14 37 65 70 65 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -3 -2 0 3 6 13 4 4 0 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 220 207 201 206 204 208 207 239 259 265 261 273 284 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.0 26.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 165 161 147 136 128 125 122 113 111 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 158 158 156 140 123 111 108 107 98 94 101 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 79 80 77 75 64 41 32 37 26 21 18 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 17 16 15 13 20 31 38 29 850 MB ENV VOR 69 76 83 85 88 81 54 36 54 86 -6 -37 -63 200 MB DIV 141 157 137 127 117 139 107 67 1 -10 -11 -16 -21 LAND (KM) 212 135 100 30 66 226 491 623 695 817 1042 1077 952 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.5 19.5 21.9 24.2 25.3 25.9 26.8 28.3 28.2 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 75.7 75.3 74.7 74.1 72.2 70.5 69.5 69.0 67.8 65.8 64.8 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 13 15 11 5 6 9 7 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 93 92 93 83 81 30 35 26 17 7 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. -3. -11. -18. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 4. 12. 17. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 25. 27. 20. 15. 11. 3. -15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)