* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 61 68 70 66 55 42 33 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 61 68 70 66 55 42 33 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 57 62 62 57 47 34 23 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 14 16 11 14 16 19 39 73 87 79 72 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 2 2 4 9 6 3 -4 -1 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 193 180 188 183 184 215 215 247 255 261 266 275 278 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.4 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 163 158 144 132 123 115 112 109 108 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 157 159 157 152 136 120 108 99 96 94 92 93 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 81 78 72 72 56 37 30 19 16 21 22 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 18 18 20 19 17 20 24 31 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 79 77 87 107 120 92 71 54 67 -15 -30 -26 -13 200 MB DIV 154 141 133 152 161 148 101 36 -4 -4 -11 -15 -12 LAND (KM) 166 79 90 77 33 302 591 801 953 1053 1145 1204 1205 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.2 20.2 22.6 25.1 26.9 28.2 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 75.8 75.4 74.7 73.9 72.2 70.5 69.4 68.6 67.4 65.5 64.1 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 11 13 13 15 12 9 7 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 96 92 85 84 69 39 27 9 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 839 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -9. -21. -30. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 3. 6. 11. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 25. 21. 10. -3. -12. -33. -44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/04/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)