* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/05/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 73 78 77 73 60 43 30 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 73 78 77 73 60 43 30 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 64 69 72 76 73 66 54 41 30 22 17 SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 7 22 40 67 74 63 58 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 0 -1 8 7 6 -1 -3 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 173 183 177 170 166 195 217 253 261 265 268 273 267 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 159 150 138 129 121 116 113 110 108 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 157 158 154 143 127 114 105 100 97 94 92 91 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -52.3 -53.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 78 74 70 62 42 29 23 32 31 24 20 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 18 17 19 18 16 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 72 80 104 115 112 74 50 72 67 17 20 3 -4 200 MB DIV 159 133 133 127 99 86 67 25 -1 -3 3 -12 -9 LAND (KM) 103 88 68 26 166 444 659 824 918 1002 1090 1154 1197 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 18.0 18.9 20.2 21.4 23.8 25.7 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 75.3 74.8 74.0 73.1 71.4 70.3 69.3 68.1 66.9 65.6 64.6 63.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 13 15 14 13 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 94 89 84 70 53 36 21 8 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 12/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. -1. -8. -18. -25. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 22. 18. 5. -12. -25. -38. -48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 6( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)