* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/05/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 79 86 88 90 86 76 58 42 30 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 73 79 86 88 90 86 76 58 42 30 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 81 86 89 87 79 68 55 41 30 23 18 SHEAR (KT) 13 9 7 11 10 11 23 49 66 69 60 55 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 4 4 2 1 5 8 7 3 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 186 172 165 163 207 204 255 269 265 260 259 266 269 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.6 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 161 153 147 135 129 122 117 113 112 111 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 155 147 138 122 114 106 101 97 95 94 95 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 62 56 40 32 28 31 35 28 25 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 17 20 18 18 17 19 17 18 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 73 102 124 116 104 53 47 63 54 59 63 76 90 200 MB DIV 153 144 127 119 91 89 39 8 16 27 17 -31 -40 LAND (KM) 99 30 43 100 237 478 633 771 895 985 1043 1090 1118 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.8 22.0 24.1 25.4 26.5 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 74.6 73.9 73.1 72.2 70.8 69.6 68.4 67.3 66.2 65.3 64.4 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 92 85 78 60 25 35 24 9 2 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -3. -11. -19. -25. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 23. 25. 21. 11. -7. -23. -35. -46. -56. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 5.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 68% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 13.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 53% is 15.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 7( 9) 11( 19) 12( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 2( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)