* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/05/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 89 92 94 91 84 72 51 34 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 82 89 92 94 91 84 72 51 34 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 83 89 93 93 87 77 66 52 39 28 21 16 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 12 9 18 27 55 74 65 59 60 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 1 5 6 9 1 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 197 176 169 187 227 235 272 270 263 259 266 266 264 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 155 147 141 131 125 119 115 112 111 111 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 148 139 130 117 109 103 99 96 95 94 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 67 60 48 37 34 32 27 14 9 9 10 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 20 19 18 17 19 19 18 17 16 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 96 122 121 103 72 58 79 91 80 84 29 -7 -7 200 MB DIV 134 119 117 94 77 72 28 -4 10 -15 -6 -1 1 LAND (KM) 45 47 88 228 377 593 715 820 947 1042 1112 1131 1147 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.7 20.7 22.0 23.2 25.1 26.1 26.9 27.8 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 74.0 73.2 72.5 71.7 70.3 69.1 68.1 67.0 65.8 64.4 63.4 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 9 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 84 77 61 42 36 27 15 7 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -16. -22. -28. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 17. 19. 16. 9. -3. -24. -41. -54. -64. -75. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 58% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 54% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 52% is 15.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 11( 15) 16( 29) 12( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 4( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)