* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/05/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 81 83 79 71 55 37 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 81 83 79 71 55 37 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 76 78 78 74 66 55 41 29 21 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 14 12 13 12 21 40 67 65 60 52 57 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 9 8 6 6 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 194 184 187 223 201 251 262 263 258 261 260 253 258 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 152 148 142 136 129 124 119 115 113 114 112 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 144 139 132 123 113 107 103 100 98 98 96 93 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 67 60 51 42 30 32 34 40 36 33 26 15 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 20 17 19 20 17 19 20 17 16 16 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 122 126 107 73 66 55 72 55 41 30 44 75 50 200 MB DIV 131 122 110 91 88 64 7 -8 20 -2 8 5 -18 LAND (KM) 39 100 211 350 488 648 725 834 957 1048 1062 1153 1295 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.8 21.8 23.0 24.2 25.6 26.2 27.0 27.8 28.1 27.8 28.4 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 73.3 72.6 72.0 71.4 70.3 69.2 68.0 66.7 65.2 63.6 62.6 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 11 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 76 59 47 37 36 21 14 6 1 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 12 CX,CY: 7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -14. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 9. 1. -15. -33. -48. -58. -69. -77. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/05/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 9( 18) 7( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)