* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/06/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 64 64 62 55 42 32 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 64 64 62 55 42 32 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 56 56 57 56 53 45 35 26 20 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 6 13 26 41 60 58 56 53 55 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 8 6 9 7 3 -1 -2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 176 199 217 218 200 250 258 262 260 267 265 266 256 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 143 139 134 132 128 125 123 123 120 117 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 141 130 124 117 116 112 108 107 108 105 100 98 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -52.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 61 50 43 43 40 34 34 35 31 30 26 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 18 18 20 20 22 19 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 130 113 74 55 59 69 70 59 69 58 71 80 105 200 MB DIV 123 114 100 69 77 63 12 5 10 10 21 28 24 LAND (KM) 55 179 311 388 466 529 636 728 815 862 914 1003 1081 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.5 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.5 25.3 25.8 26.1 26.1 25.9 26.2 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 72.4 71.6 71.3 70.9 70.0 68.6 67.3 66.0 64.3 62.1 60.9 60.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 10 8 6 6 7 6 7 9 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 53 51 39 35 35 34 27 16 11 12 10 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -18. -24. -29. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. -1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. -5. -18. -28. -40. -46. -53. -59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)