* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/06/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 69 70 69 63 51 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 69 70 69 63 51 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 65 64 61 53 43 33 25 20 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 13 22 32 50 56 54 51 54 51 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 9 7 7 13 8 3 0 1 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 213 256 283 224 245 265 258 264 263 263 251 252 252 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 139 135 132 130 129 125 122 120 120 119 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 132 124 119 115 113 113 110 106 105 105 102 102 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 54 46 45 42 34 37 42 38 37 36 34 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 20 19 18 19 20 20 19 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 99 69 56 63 73 71 61 57 46 46 59 84 93 200 MB DIV 124 110 94 69 83 34 0 33 -8 13 46 34 23 LAND (KM) 178 272 369 438 507 565 638 753 865 902 909 968 1020 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.5 26.2 26.2 25.6 25.5 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.2 70.6 70.3 70.0 68.9 67.5 66.1 64.7 63.2 61.6 60.4 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 5 6 7 7 6 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 36 36 36 36 28 16 12 9 12 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -9. -16. -22. -27. -31. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. -2. -14. -26. -39. -50. -59. -67. -73. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)