* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/06/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 62 58 46 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 62 58 46 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 59 59 59 56 50 41 32 25 20 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 6 12 15 22 35 51 57 52 50 55 52 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 9 9 7 12 8 3 1 2 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 247 254 239 260 261 264 261 266 270 265 264 256 246 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 134 131 130 128 126 125 123 120 119 119 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 124 118 113 112 112 109 108 108 107 107 104 102 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 51 46 47 41 36 39 37 36 32 26 28 29 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 15 16 18 17 17 15 13 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 70 50 54 63 76 71 57 51 42 41 44 82 115 200 MB DIV 85 76 59 64 43 6 -10 26 7 -9 25 33 50 LAND (KM) 311 394 478 514 550 620 698 779 832 950 1155 1360 1561 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.3 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.3 27.0 27.8 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.9 70.3 69.6 69.4 69.1 68.0 66.8 65.5 64.2 62.2 59.5 57.3 55.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 6 4 4 6 6 6 8 11 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 38 38 37 29 21 17 15 8 6 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 14 CX,CY: 10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -9. -16. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -14. -26. -37. -47. -57. -62. -68. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)