* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/06/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 52 45 36 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 52 45 36 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 51 50 49 46 39 32 25 21 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 11 16 26 34 49 54 49 49 55 54 46 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 11 7 6 9 3 2 0 1 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 232 225 259 274 275 260 261 261 271 262 249 256 258 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 129 127 126 127 124 120 117 117 117 115 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 117 112 108 109 112 111 106 103 104 104 101 97 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 47 43 34 33 28 33 35 32 27 23 25 26 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 17 16 16 17 15 14 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 65 69 72 71 64 68 52 44 60 60 66 81 200 MB DIV 98 74 73 32 30 -12 8 30 13 26 36 62 71 LAND (KM) 451 511 572 603 634 697 830 933 1079 1260 1507 1735 1804 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.4 27.2 27.9 28.7 29.6 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.1 69.6 69.1 68.9 68.7 67.3 64.9 62.9 61.3 59.1 56.2 53.9 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 5 3 4 9 10 9 9 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 34 32 27 20 14 7 4 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 14 CX,CY: 8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -13. -20. -25. -31. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -10. -19. -30. -38. -46. -54. -56. -57. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/06/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)