* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/07/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 70 66 61 48 35 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 72 70 66 61 48 35 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 72 70 66 57 47 37 31 27 26 25 26 SHEAR (KT) 14 24 33 43 47 58 55 47 45 43 42 45 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 3 4 8 2 3 3 0 3 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 223 242 264 266 265 260 263 268 265 261 234 231 250 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 124 124 125 124 121 118 114 109 104 100 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 110 106 106 109 111 108 106 101 95 91 87 84 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 43 38 36 31 33 38 35 34 32 31 34 37 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 16 15 13 10 7 6 8 22 850 MB ENV VOR 51 60 68 66 71 64 61 48 57 75 89 146 166 200 MB DIV 69 49 22 25 -6 7 9 20 36 60 65 101 72 LAND (KM) 577 635 695 697 702 805 943 1147 1414 1653 1547 1444 1307 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.4 25.9 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.7 27.7 29.1 30.6 32.2 33.7 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 69.4 69.0 68.6 68.1 66.2 63.6 60.9 58.3 56.2 54.8 53.2 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 4 6 11 12 13 13 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 17 18 18 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -12. -22. -30. -34. -36. -37. -38. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -4. -9. -22. -35. -46. -54. -62. -67. -66. -54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)