* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/07/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 66 61 54 41 30 22 19 18 18 28 26 V (KT) LAND 70 69 66 61 54 41 30 22 19 18 18 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 69 66 61 52 42 35 32 33 36 39 40 SHEAR (KT) 24 34 45 54 58 58 46 32 28 22 31 35 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 2 2 4 3 1 4 5 -1 1 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 254 265 266 263 265 263 256 257 243 224 208 214 229 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.7 24.0 23.8 23.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 121 121 122 118 116 111 105 99 98 94 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 105 104 105 107 106 105 100 93 88 86 82 77 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 -55.9 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 5 1 0 700-500 MB RH 39 35 29 31 34 40 35 34 39 44 54 60 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 18 16 16 14 12 9 7 7 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 50 65 77 89 74 67 63 71 86 98 88 81 49 200 MB DIV 49 22 31 0 -32 14 13 46 64 95 83 62 20 LAND (KM) 706 739 775 806 843 1005 1218 1539 1478 1344 1163 1050 1015 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.4 28.5 30.4 32.6 34.6 36.4 38.0 39.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 68.6 68.2 67.5 66.7 64.2 61.1 58.2 55.7 53.2 50.6 48.1 45.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 4 5 7 9 13 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 9 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -12. -18. -28. -33. -34. -33. -31. -30. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -16. -29. -40. -48. -51. -52. -52. -42. -44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)