* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 38 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 38 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 45 42 38 31 24 20 18 17 18 19 21 SHEAR (KT) 34 40 47 56 63 58 42 34 37 32 35 54 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 0 4 4 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 259 260 265 264 264 263 256 246 246 218 228 232 237 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.2 24.3 23.6 23.2 20.9 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 124 122 118 116 109 102 97 95 84 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 109 110 109 106 105 99 92 86 83 75 76 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -54.2 -55.9 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 34 35 32 35 35 35 27 29 33 44 52 54 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 17 16 16 15 18 19 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 61 75 90 79 81 70 69 78 105 70 55 53 93 200 MB DIV 30 7 -1 -16 -9 10 19 50 55 73 68 45 10 LAND (KM) 677 695 716 773 840 1019 1265 1550 1363 1158 994 925 992 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.5 27.4 28.8 31.0 33.9 36.3 38.2 40.0 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 69.0 68.4 67.4 66.3 63.6 60.7 57.7 55.0 52.2 49.3 46.3 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 10 11 14 16 18 17 16 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 15 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -12. -21. -27. -30. -33. -34. -33. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -24. -36. -44. -49. -48. -46. -41. -41. -46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)