* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 38 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 38 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 44 39 35 31 25 20 18 18 19 19 21 22 SHEAR (KT) 44 48 56 59 62 49 31 32 32 30 36 41 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 7 4 1 0 4 3 6 5 -1 1 8 SHEAR DIR 249 255 255 256 261 258 251 232 189 207 224 251 258 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.4 23.7 22.2 17.1 13.9 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 123 121 120 115 109 103 98 89 72 68 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 110 109 108 107 105 99 92 86 79 67 65 66 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -52.5 -53.9 -54.9 -56.5 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 32 29 34 35 36 31 37 42 56 50 43 40 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 18 18 18 20 17 14 15 20 16 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 61 83 64 56 59 63 92 161 218 170 79 -13 -84 200 MB DIV 23 12 -17 -10 9 10 35 70 82 76 11 8 -23 LAND (KM) 700 739 788 861 946 1174 1462 1239 951 750 534 450 576 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 28.6 31.2 34.2 37.4 40.0 41.9 43.2 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 68.6 67.7 66.5 65.3 62.6 59.6 57.6 56.5 54.9 52.6 50.2 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 12 16 18 17 16 14 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 8 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -11. -17. -21. -25. -27. -28. -29. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. 0. -3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -24. -32. -40. -45. -44. -40. -42. -38. -41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/07/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)