* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TOMAS AL212010 11/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 41 37 33 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 41 37 33 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 45 41 37 31 29 28 26 25 27 31 37 SHEAR (KT) 56 59 60 52 45 26 44 66 61 31 16 21 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 -1 -1 -4 3 0 3 -2 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 265 263 267 267 269 233 215 212 227 246 283 317 300 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.7 24.5 23.2 16.9 13.6 15.1 19.5 20.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 121 118 115 106 97 72 65 70 81 85 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 114 110 106 98 88 67 61 66 75 78 91 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.9 -57.4 -58.7 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 47 46 48 48 60 57 44 46 45 36 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 14 14 15 12 9 7 5 10 8 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 67 49 45 51 44 51 113 102 78 47 11 13 -17 200 MB DIV -31 -29 8 28 39 46 94 65 31 -7 -24 -56 -48 LAND (KM) 741 888 1000 1186 1389 1334 846 494 356 305 303 336 272 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.4 29.5 33.5 38.6 42.4 43.6 42.9 41.2 39.0 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 65.5 63.5 61.5 59.5 57.0 56.1 56.2 56.9 59.1 63.5 68.6 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 19 20 21 21 24 22 13 5 14 21 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -22. -28. -29. -28. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -6. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -16. -23. -27. -35. -42. -42. -43. -46. -48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212010 TOMAS 11/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212010 TOMAS 11/08/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212010 TOMAS 11/08/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)