* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 11/09/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 36 34 27 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 36 34 27 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 35 34 32 28 24 19 DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 11 15 20 26 31 37 39 49 53 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 3 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 131 196 195 206 216 236 229 244 252 264 258 258 253 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 150 150 150 148 147 150 154 148 138 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 141 141 141 139 135 131 138 154 159 150 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 61 57 55 51 52 48 39 37 39 33 35 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 25 23 17 20 14 17 21 4 -24 -23 -8 200 MB DIV 44 52 56 50 45 25 -5 -25 -17 0 8 35 70 LAND (KM) 158 205 247 269 266 182 124 80 63 31 103 833 1662 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.4 17.6 18.0 19.3 22.4 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.1 70.5 70.9 71.3 72.1 72.4 72.6 72.2 70.1 65.5 59.0 52.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 6 17 28 36 37 HEAT CONTENT 78 78 80 90 98 113 104 101 98 87 58 36 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 2. -3. -8. -11. -14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 11/09/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 11/09/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 11/09/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)