* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 11/09/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 27 28 27 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 5 12 18 21 23 31 33 38 43 52 61 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -3 -1 1 2 -2 -4 4 0 -3 -13 SHEAR DIR 161 195 207 228 238 230 243 251 261 250 259 253 271 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.4 25.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 149 150 151 147 144 143 138 135 118 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 140 139 139 140 138 139 143 140 136 114 103 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.7 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 64 58 55 55 55 51 42 36 34 35 42 49 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 7 0 -11 -16 -9 -20 -16 -38 -30 -45 -35 -38 200 MB DIV 32 33 42 52 42 20 1 -9 14 25 34 55 81 LAND (KM) 245 309 306 252 199 56 10 115 464 978 1589 2103 1999 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.6 18.5 18.9 19.6 21.8 25.0 28.4 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.3 68.8 67.3 64.8 61.5 57.1 52.1 47.0 42.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 7 10 14 20 26 28 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 74 75 79 85 87 86 52 57 51 35 23 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 2. -2. -8. -14. -20. -25. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. -16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 11/09/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 11/09/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 11/09/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)