* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 11/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 23 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 18 17 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 11 19 21 20 25 28 32 34 44 49 54 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -3 0 -1 1 -1 -4 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 167 192 227 241 236 240 252 250 259 257 257 252 252 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.4 25.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 149 150 147 145 143 144 138 135 117 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 139 138 138 136 136 136 142 141 137 113 101 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -55.1 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 57 55 56 53 45 39 35 34 35 45 53 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -17 -21 -15 -27 -24 -29 -26 -40 -45 -28 -3 200 MB DIV 42 51 73 60 53 22 21 -5 4 45 55 88 84 LAND (KM) 341 305 244 189 133 64 -22 180 475 941 1577 2055 1964 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.9 18.3 18.5 19.3 21.6 25.3 28.8 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.6 68.6 68.6 68.6 67.8 66.2 64.0 61.3 57.4 52.4 47.2 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 7 9 12 17 26 29 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 70 73 79 82 84 76 76 65 53 38 21 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -16. -21. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 11/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 11/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 11/09/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)