* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 11/10/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 18 19 20 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 18 19 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 25 22 18 19 25 29 34 39 49 46 49 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 1 0 3 -3 -4 -2 -1 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 194 222 238 249 236 242 247 264 261 265 253 258 253 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.1 25.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 149 147 144 144 142 138 135 120 110 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 139 138 137 135 138 140 140 136 115 102 95 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.9 -55.2 -56.2 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 55 53 46 39 35 36 44 58 64 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -29 -31 -22 -23 -23 -27 -21 -14 -34 -33 -25 -12 200 MB DIV 47 59 65 53 45 23 8 22 34 53 73 84 80 LAND (KM) 270 215 161 112 64 33 218 544 1018 1626 2155 2043 2086 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.8 19.1 19.6 21.6 24.8 28.0 30.4 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.3 68.3 68.1 67.8 66.4 63.8 60.7 56.6 51.6 46.6 42.2 38.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 10 13 18 25 28 25 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 75 80 83 82 76 39 58 50 38 21 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -5. -11. -19. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 11/10/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 79.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 11/10/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 11/10/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)