* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 11/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 18 21 21 22 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 18 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 21 26 32 39 41 46 48 50 52 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 218 238 233 237 241 252 261 273 269 266 272 272 274 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.6 26.6 25.7 24.9 24.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 145 142 141 137 136 124 114 107 102 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 138 138 137 137 139 137 135 118 106 98 92 88 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -55.1 -55.5 -56.8 -57.5 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 50 46 42 42 46 57 60 64 69 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -35 -30 -35 -39 -47 -28 -8 -19 -11 -29 -38 -57 200 MB DIV 50 55 60 57 34 37 33 45 63 67 76 66 44 LAND (KM) 133 42 -11 66 178 514 983 1504 2029 2120 2072 2142 2003 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.7 21.7 23.7 26.4 28.9 30.8 32.1 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 67.4 67.0 66.0 65.0 61.5 57.0 52.4 48.0 44.4 40.6 36.8 33.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 12 14 19 23 24 22 20 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 83 78 46 65 55 40 38 22 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 25. 30. 32. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -8. -15. -23. -27. -31. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 11/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 11/10/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 11/10/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)