* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 35 45 56 66 69 70 69 68 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 35 45 56 66 69 70 69 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 44 47 48 48 48 SHEAR (KT) 8 14 14 11 13 16 20 22 28 27 30 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -6 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 122 148 160 143 113 105 68 77 64 74 79 95 100 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 151 150 146 141 137 136 139 145 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 148 147 146 142 135 131 130 134 140 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 5 6 3 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 66 70 72 72 76 77 78 78 78 76 75 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 12 11 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 50 55 52 53 44 39 28 26 34 48 47 200 MB DIV 33 58 97 106 129 142 109 116 70 61 69 89 80 LAND (KM) 101 147 201 156 116 39 17 17 45 108 130 126 15 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.4 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.9 10.7 11.6 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 76.8 77.3 77.8 78.3 79.2 79.9 80.4 80.9 81.4 82.0 82.6 83.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 74 73 69 62 54 36 25 23 34 45 49 42 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 25. 36. 46. 49. 50. 49. 48. 46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/12/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/12/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)