* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/13/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 35 46 56 66 71 73 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 35 46 56 66 71 73 72 48 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 29 34 39 44 48 52 39 31 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 14 17 14 16 25 23 20 22 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -7 -5 -3 0 -2 -2 2 3 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 127 149 143 133 136 102 79 76 58 72 97 119 132 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 151 149 145 144 145 148 145 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 146 147 145 143 140 138 141 146 142 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.2 -53.0 -54.1 -53.2 -54.1 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 3 4 3 4 3 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 72 75 76 77 76 77 75 71 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 13 13 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 55 46 51 36 45 47 46 44 50 47 33 200 MB DIV 53 81 102 126 153 107 127 91 89 94 95 60 37 LAND (KM) 127 169 208 177 151 99 56 87 147 161 43 -93 -29 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 10.0 10.3 11.3 12.9 14.4 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.0 77.4 77.8 78.2 79.0 79.6 80.3 81.1 82.2 83.1 84.2 85.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 6 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 72 73 68 63 57 47 41 44 45 45 6 0 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 26. 36. 46. 51. 53. 52. 52. 50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/13/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/13/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/13/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)