* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/13/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 53 64 70 72 71 73 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 53 64 70 72 47 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 38 44 50 38 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 18 16 12 14 21 22 22 19 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -4 -2 -3 0 -4 -5 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 147 143 139 138 133 107 87 73 69 71 102 108 125 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 151 151 149 148 146 145 146 144 147 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 147 146 146 143 142 142 141 142 139 141 143 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 5 4 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 75 77 73 74 75 74 69 68 62 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 14 13 12 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 42 47 38 36 55 53 50 53 65 59 51 200 MB DIV 84 92 112 113 107 83 99 57 82 79 69 66 56 LAND (KM) 142 186 189 166 143 111 117 163 137 50 -89 -189 -123 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.7 12.6 13.4 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.2 77.6 78.1 78.5 79.4 80.2 81.2 82.2 83.3 84.4 85.7 87.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 73 71 66 60 53 40 41 44 49 17 18 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -6. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 33. 44. 50. 52. 51. 53. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/13/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/13/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/13/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)